Below is the Executive Summary from the report. “Unlike 2017, when major macro indicators pointed in the same direction, the year of 2018 is a more nuanced one in terms of the emerging and frontier market equity outlook. In 2017, an investor could have invested in an overwhelming majority of emerging and frontier market countries and he/she would have made money. Relatively attractive valuations, strong global growth and international trade all contributed to the excellent market performance in 2017, the year that could be described as the one when “a rising tide lifted all boats”. In Beyond Borders Investment Strategies’ opinion, it is not how the investment outlook for 2018 is shaping up. Investment risks have increased during the year. We think that stock markets of some emerging and frontier market countries will perform well and some will not. In our opinion, in 2018, investors will have to work hard at selecting countries where they would like to invest their money and to exercise care when sizing their investments. In this report, we share five investment trends that helped us select countries to invest in and size our investment positions. We end the discussion of each of the global trends by reviewing the investment implications for our portfolios.”
“Out of these five trends, we will focus most of our analysis on the ongoing trade war between the US and its trading partners. The reason for this is that the news from the trade war fronts has had a strong impact on prices of stocks in emerging and frontier markets in 2018. We expect this impact to continue until a resolution to the trade war between the US and its trading partners is achieved. In our opinion, the trade war is a structural trend which may lead to the restructuring of the global trade system. The other four trends are more cyclical in their nature. They include the appreciating US Dollar, decreasing oil price, slowing earnings growth, and attractive valuations.”
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